>>299091If we're talking about 1861-65 Confederacy against 1861-65 Imperial Japan, and had some ridiculous context-free situation where you just lay out the entire army of each nation on a wide field so they can duke it out ... yeah, there's no contest. The Confederacy is an appreciable portion of the post-industrial US with a first-class military force aided by somewhat mediocre but numerous militia forces.
Japan is still a feudal state which is just starting to be aware of Western technology and was completely subjugated by a handful of American warships only 10 years earlier.
Japan did not have any chance of waging war on another nation until the late 19th century, excepting a few pointless invasions of Korea, and it's only due to geographic location and lack of Chinese interest it wasn't invaded and colonized over and over.