tl;dr take a awful plea bargain or risk 10-15 in prison
Here's my situation:
I was on probation. Then I had a nasty break-up with my Ex. She accused me of rape (falsely) and I went to prison. I got out on bail after four months, but I'm living /r9k/-style: house arrest with no opportunity to leave.
So, in a month I have a trial. I have two options: please out to aggravated sexual assault (5+ years of probation, sex offender treatment groups, suspended sentence or unknown length, and registry with the Sex Offender Registry Board as a level 2 or 3. Level 2 is where anyone in your area is given the information, and level 3 is where they have a mugshot of you at the library, post office, police station, etc. )
My other option is to take the thing to trial. There's about a 25% chance of her testifying that I raped her. If she testifies, I'm boned. They'll take her word for it, and I'll go to state prison for 10-15 years. If she doesn't testify, I go free.
What does /r9k/ think I should do?